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 Post subject: Whither The Economy 2017? [The Economic Predictions Scam]
PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:54 pm 
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Now that the Fed has, contrary to my own, er, "prediction" raised rates, what does anyone think is going to happen to the US economy now, or maybe 1, 2, or more years from now, because I haven't got a frickin' clue, personally? :D

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Last edited by onebornfree on Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:52 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy- 2016 Onwards?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:39 pm 
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All guesswork, but I don't think much is going to change until EM are exhausted in their capacity to absorb cheap US "money"/credit.


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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy- 2016 Onwards?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:56 pm 
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Jon Irenicus wrote:
All guesswork, but I don't think much is going to change until EM are exhausted in their capacity to absorb cheap US "money"/credit.


"EM"? You lost me [parlez vous anglais?]

Regards, onebornfree

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Obf radio interview on Austrian economics, 9/11, anarcho-capitalism etc. :
https://fauxcapitalist.files.wordpress. ... 15-obf.mp3

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:19 pm 
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Emerging market economies.


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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:33 pm 
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The Fed is not like a magic wand. I wouldn't say they raised rates. They just merely followed what the Treasury market was doing and their rates have been trending upward for the past year.

Image

Of course if the economy crashes, the Fed's rate raise will mistakenly be blamed. Below is a more ominous indicator of trouble for the economy: widening spreads between junk and investment-grade bonds. You remember what happened the last when rates widened like this?

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:40 pm 
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Good catch.


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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:34 pm 
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Remember the last time the Fed raised rate?

The economy continued to boom. (And crashed a couple of years later, of course. But the point is that the markets will continue to go up until the bubble breaks and that this is not the pin that will pop it.)


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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:12 am 
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AlGoreTheIdiot wrote:
Major decline for stocks coming


Are you therefor predicting a major stock market decline based on numerology [i.e. the dreaded Fibonacci numbers] and credit market spreads ?

And if so, presumably you are betting on such an occurrence somehow [e.g. shorting various stocks or market indices via put options maybe? ]

regards, onebornfree.

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Personal Freedom Consulting: "The Problem Solver: http://onebornfree.blogspot.com/

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Obf radio interview on Austrian economics, 9/11, anarcho-capitalism etc. :
https://fauxcapitalist.files.wordpress. ... 15-obf.mp3

Songwriting:'Dreams [Matrix Blues]":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imUywzx9I4M


Last edited by onebornfree on Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:17 am 
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DanielMuff wrote:
.... this is not the pin that will pop it.)


Not saying I fundamentally disagree in principle, but what makes you so sure? How could anyone know for certain in advance [or at least before its supposedly worked its er, "magic"]?

Regards, onebornfree.

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Obf radio interview on Austrian economics, 9/11, anarcho-capitalism etc. :
https://fauxcapitalist.files.wordpress. ... 15-obf.mp3

Songwriting:'Dreams [Matrix Blues]":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imUywzx9I4M


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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:36 am 
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Let me put it this way, the rate was raised and then the economy didn't implode. Therefore, this pin didn't pop it. Maybe it'll be the pin at 1% or maybe 7%.

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:59 am 
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onebornfree wrote:
How could anyone know for certain in advance...?


You're fighting a strawman. A predictor doesn't have to be certain (i.e. have 100% accuracy/certainty) to provide a statistical edge on (and profit from) the outcomes for future events. Multiple uncorrelated predictors, making multiple predictions/bets, each sporting only a slight 51/49% statistical edge (which is almost indistinguishable from zero edge on a single bet basis) can produce a fairly consistent profit stream (e.g. a casino). If your edge is small (51/49%), you need a lot of bets (coin flips) to achieve consistency. If your edge is large (70/30%), you can achieve the same consistency with a smaller number of bets. Certainty is unrealistic, hence over-rated.

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:59 pm 
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DanielMuff wrote:
Let me put it this way, the rate was raised and then the economy didn't implode. Therefore, this pin didn't pop it. Maybe it'll be the pin at 1% or maybe 7%.


Isn't it a little early for you to draw such a definitive [i.e final] conclusion?

Regards, onebornfree.

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Personal Freedom Consulting: "The Problem Solver: http://onebornfree.blogspot.com/

Onebornfree's Financial Safety Services: http://onebornfreesfinancialsafetyreports.blogspot.com/

Obf radio interview on Austrian economics, 9/11, anarcho-capitalism etc. :
https://fauxcapitalist.files.wordpress. ... 15-obf.mp3

Songwriting:'Dreams [Matrix Blues]":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imUywzx9I4M


Last edited by onebornfree on Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:03 pm 
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z1235 wrote:
onebornfree wrote:
How could anyone know for certain in advance...?


You're fighting a strawman. A predictor doesn't have to be certain (i.e. have 100% accuracy/certainty) to provide a statistical edge on (and profit from) the outcomes for future events. Multiple uncorrelated predictors, making multiple predictions/bets, each sporting only a slight 51/49% statistical edge (which is almost indistinguishable from zero edge on a single bet basis) can produce a fairly consistent profit stream (e.g. a casino). If your edge is small (51/49%), you need a lot of bets (coin flips) to achieve consistency. If your edge is large (70/30%), you can achieve the same consistency with a smaller number of bets. Certainty is unrealistic, hence over-rated.


I'm not fighting anything. I agree, absolute certainty is an impossibility [as you should know by now ;) ]- I was [merely] questioning the thinking of the individual concerned.

Regards, onebornfree.

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Personal Freedom Consulting: "The Problem Solver: http://onebornfree.blogspot.com/

Onebornfree's Financial Safety Services: http://onebornfreesfinancialsafetyreports.blogspot.com/

Obf radio interview on Austrian economics, 9/11, anarcho-capitalism etc. :
https://fauxcapitalist.files.wordpress. ... 15-obf.mp3

Songwriting:'Dreams [Matrix Blues]":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imUywzx9I4M


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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 2:20 pm 
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onebornfree wrote:
I agree, absolute certainty is an impossibility [as you should know by now ;) ]


Not getting what the joke/sarcasm was about.

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:30 pm 
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z1235 wrote:
onebornfree wrote:
I agree, absolute certainty is an impossibility [as you should know by now ;) ]


Not getting what the joke/sarcasm was about.


Are you saying that you and I have not covered this very same subject [i.e. the unpredictability of future market events] , on several prior occasions? Perhaps you had forgotten?

Regards, onebornfree.

_________________
Personal Freedom Consulting: "The Problem Solver: http://onebornfree.blogspot.com/

Onebornfree's Financial Safety Services: http://onebornfreesfinancialsafetyreports.blogspot.com/

Obf radio interview on Austrian economics, 9/11, anarcho-capitalism etc. :
https://fauxcapitalist.files.wordpress. ... 15-obf.mp3

Songwriting:'Dreams [Matrix Blues]":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imUywzx9I4M


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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:53 pm 
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onebornfree wrote:
z1235 wrote:
onebornfree wrote:
I agree, absolute certainty is an impossibility [as you should know by now ;) ]


Not getting what the joke/sarcasm was about.


Are you saying that you and I have not covered this very same subject [i.e. the unpredictability of future market events] , on several prior occasions? Perhaps you had forgotten?


The only thing we've covered is your confusion about uncertainty = unpredictability, which we just covered once again. Glad you finally agreed that things don't have to be 100% certain to be predictable, i.e. that smaller then 100% predictability does not imply UNpredictability. The only one arguing on the side of certainty has been you with your 100% certainty that Browne's Permanent Portfolio strategy is going to preserve or increase your purchasing power for ALL possible future outcomes.

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:05 pm 
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z1235 wrote:
Glad you finally agreed that things don't have to be 100% certain to be predictable, i.e. that smaller then 100% predictability does not imply UNpredictability.

For the benefit of the rest of us, what exactly is meant here?

A. One does not have to be 100% certain which way the die will fall in order to predict its value will be from 1 to 6? (perfect prediction of a general outcome without perfect prediction of a specific outcome).
B. One does not have to be 100% certain which way the die will fall in order to predict its value will be from 2 to 6? (imperfect but often true prediction).
C. Something else completely?

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:23 pm 
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AndrisBirkmanis wrote:
z1235 wrote:
Glad you finally agreed that things don't have to be 100% certain to be predictable, i.e. that smaller then 100% predictability does not imply UNpredictability.

For the benefit of the rest of us, what exactly is meant here?

A. One does not have to be 100% certain which way the die will fall in order to predict its value will be from 1 to 6? (perfect prediction of a general outcome without perfect prediction of a specific outcome).
B. One does not have to be 100% certain which way the die will fall in order to predict its value will be from 2 to 6? (imperfect but often true prediction).
C. Something else completely?


C.
To clarify my terms, a fair die (with 1/6 chance of falling at any number 1-6) is both perfectly uncertain and perfectly unpredictable. One does not have to have a perfectly biased/certain ("cheater") die (e.g. one designed to always fall on #4 with 100% certainty) in order to profit from a biased die. The die could only be biased to fall at #4 with 1.02 * 1/6 chance (i.e. 2% more likely than "fair") and you could still come ahead (profit-wise) if you bet #4 on large enough number of throws. In this example, OBF would say that betting on #4 is unpredictable because it is uncertain (i.e. you don't know with certainty which number may show at any particular throw/bet). I'm saying that, even though it's not certain, betting on #4 is not completely unpredictable and that there exists a statistical edge which can be exploited over a large enough number of throws/bets. The fact that I can not predict with certainty does not mean that I can not predict (i.e. can not profit from predicting) at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:32 pm 
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This all boils down to having a better estimate of random values than your competition, right?

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 Post subject: Re: Whither The Economy?- 2016 Onwards
PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:57 pm 
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AndrisBirkmanis wrote:
This all boils down to having a better estimate of random values than your competition, right?


Yes, it boils down to building a process which is likely to produce a statistical edge and your confidence about the existence and the size of that edge in a world that keeps changing. (No one is handing you biased dies with a manual on how to use them.) I think that Browne's Permanent Portfolio (as a strategy/process) DOES have an edge (over many other well known and popular strategies) but it is far from certain that it will preserve or increase your future purchasing power better than many other strategies out there, or even at all.

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